Hawkeye Beacon - Spencer Lee - 2024 Olympic Wrestling Preview: Bracket, Odds, Schedule (2024)

The long wait is almost over. Spencer Lee, a three-time Big Ten and NCAA champion, five-time All-American, and one of the best wrestlers to ever don an Iowa singlet, will finally make his Olympic debut in Paris on Thursday. Action in the 57 KG bracket (featuring Lee) is scheduled to get underway at 4:30 AM CT on Thursday, with Peaco*ck set to air the on-mat action.

Lee's wait at this Olympics has been significant -- the opening ceremony was over 10 days ago, back on July 26 -- though that wait pales in comparison to his wait to get to the Olympics. Competing for Olympic gold has been one of Lee's goals since he started wrestling, when he dominated the youth ranks and rolled through several age-level World Championships, claiming top honors as a cadet world champion in 2014 and a junior world champion in 2015 and 2016.

It's been eight years since Lee took the mat with a chance to claim a gold medal at a top freestyle competition -- eight long years in which Lee became a Hawkeye legend and endured several serious knee injuries. At one time Lee had designs on competing in the 2020 Olympics in Tokyo; then the COVID-19 pandemic delayed those Olympic Games for a year and injuries put Lee's career on pause. Two torn ACLs weren't enough to prevent Lee from winning a third consecutive national championship, but they were enough to keep him from vying for a spot on the U.S. team in Tokyo.

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Lee earned his spot in Paris with an impressive run of wins earlier this year. In April, Lee marched through the field at 57 KG at the Olympic Team Trials in State College, formally earning the 57 KG spot on the United States team by defeating former Iowa wrestler (and 2020 Olympic bronze medalist and 2021 World Champion) Thomas Gilman in two consecutive matches in the best-of-three finals.

In May, Lee formally qualified the United States at 57 KG by mowing down the competition at the World Olympic Games Qualifier tournament in Istanbul, Turkey. Lee won four straight matches in Turkey, including three by technical superiority, to ensure the United States would be able to compete at 57 KG in Paris.

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So Lee's Olympic wait will finally end on Thursday, when he takes the mat in Paris and begins his quest to earn an Olympic gold medal. To win a gold medal, Lee will need to win four matches. Here's how the schedule breaks down (all times CT):

THURSDAY, AUGUST 8

4:30 AM: 57 KG first round matches begin
5:50 AM: 57 KG quarterfinal matches begin
11:15 AM: 57 KG semifinal matches begin

FRIDAY, AUGUST 9

12:55 PM: 57 KG gold medal match

(Delays tend to happen once the day's action gets underway, so consider all listed times somewhat approximate.)

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Top 8 Olympic Seeds

1) Rei Higuchi, Japan
2) Arsen Harutyunyan, Armenia
3) Meirambek Kartbay, Kazakhstan
4) Zelimkhan Abakarov, Albania
5) Aman Sehrawat, India
6) Wanhao Zou, China
7) Gulomjon Abdullaev, Uzbekistan
8) Gamal Mohamed, Egypt

Unseeded Wrestlers

Spencer Lee, United States
Darian Cruz, Puerto Rico
Roman Bravo-Young, Mexico
Diamantino Iuna Fafe, Guinea-Bissau
Aliabbas Rzazade, Azerbaijan
Vladimir Egorov, North Macedonia
Bekzat Almaz Uulu, Kyrgyzstan
Alireza Sarlak, Iran

Yes, that is former Penn State standout Roman Bravo-Young competing for Mexico. He's one of the bigger wildcards in this bracket, both because he's unfamiliar to the other wrestlers at this weight and because he's cutting down to 57 KG (125.7 lbs) after spending his college career at roughly 60 KG (133 lbs).

On paper, Lee received a draw that could be very difficult. His opening match is against 6-seed Wanhao Zou of China. The good news is that Lee is familiar with Zou, having faced him at the World Olympic Qualifier tournament back in May. The bad news is that was Lee's toughest match so far this year and one he barely won (10-9).

Post-Zou, Lee is slated to face the 3-seed (Kartbay) in the quarterfinals and the 2-seed (Harutyunyan) in the semifinals, if the seeds hold and there are no upsets. In fact, Lee could have to go through the 3-seed, 2-seed, and 1-seed (Higuchi) in consecutive matches in the quarterfinals, semifinals, and final to claim an Olympic gold medal in Paris. We'll see if there are any upsets that alter that path in reality, but the on-paper draw looks very formidable.

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Rei Higuchi, Japan
Zelimkhan Abakarov, Albania
Arsen Harutyunyan, ARM

Lee (and the rest of the field) got a break when news broke a few days ago that Serbia's Stevan Micic, the defending World Champion at 57 KG and the pre-tournament top seed at the Olympics, would not be able to compete in Paris due to a knee injury. His absence should make the competition even more wide-open at this weight.

Micic was not the only former World Champion in this field, though. Higuchi was a world champion at 61 KG in 2022 and suffered a narrow loss (7-4) to Micic in last year's World Championship final. He also has experience on the Olympic stage, winning a silver medal at the 2016 Olympics in Rio. Higuchi is a dynamic athlete on his feet, with explosive leg attacks, and he also has dangerous par terre offense on the mat, where he's capable of quickly chaining together exposures and ending a match.

Abakarov, a former Russian who now competes for Albania, won a world championship at 57 KG in 2022, beating Micic and Gilman in the semis and final by a combined score of 13-3. While Abakarov doesn't have the same explosive offense that Higuchi possesses, he's extremely difficult to come back against. He excels at scoring early to build a lead and then using stingy defense to defend that lead. The good news for Lee is that based on how the bracket sets up, he would only have to wrestle one of Higuchi or Abakarov -- they're on the opposite side of the bracket from Lee.

Harutyunyan, an Armenian wrestler, won bronze medals at the 2021, 2022, and 2023 World Championships and has wins over Zou (10-0), Micic (7-4), and Abakarov (5-2) and is the 2-seed in this bracket. He's clearly a talented wrestler with a real chance of making a deep run in this bracket. But he also suffered tech fall losses to fall into the bronze medal matches in 2021 and 2022, as well as a wild 16-14 loss to Higuchi in the quarterfinals in 2023. In other words, he's capable of conceding a lot of points in a hurry.

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Meirambek Kartbay, Kazakhstan
Wanhao Zou, CHN
Aman Sehrawat, IND

Kazakhstan's Meirambek Kartbay looms as a potential threat for Lee in the quarterfinals; he doesn't have any past World medals, but he did finish fifth at last year's World Championships and claimed a bronze medal at the 2024 Asian Championships.

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Zou should be familiar to folks who have been following Lee's Olympic quest -- he's the wrestler who has given Lee the most difficulty this year. Zou, the top seed at the World Olympic Qualifier tournament, was the only opponent that Lee didn't defeat via technical fall at that event; Lee had to sweat a 10-9 decision against Zou.

Zou jumped out to a 6-1 lead in that match, but Lee responded with a takedown and three leg laces to take a 10-6 lead into the break. Zou responded with a step-out point and another takedown to cut Lee's lead to 10-9 in the second period. Lee prevented him from scoring any more points, but Zou did finish the match on top of Lee on the mat.

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Consistency has been Zou's issue, but he was a U23 champion in 2018 and finished in the Top 10 at the 2022 and 2023 World Championships. And Lee knows well how difficult he can be to overcome in a match after his experience in Turkey a few months ago.

Sehrawat is one of the youngest wrestlers at the Olympics at only 21 years of age, but he already has gold medals at the U23 World Championship in 2022 and the Asian Championships in 2023. Sehrawat wrestles a high-pressure, high-tempo style and tries to wear down his opponents, though he's also shown some holes in his defense in neutral and on the mat.

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Due to his relative lack of significant recent international competition -- Lee has spent much of the past few years rehabbing from several injuries -- Lee enters the Olympics as an unseeded competitor at 57 KG. That means that he could get drawn against anyone in the field in the opening round. Who he gets drawn against and where he gets placed in the bracket will also determine who his potential quarterfinal and semifinal opponents will be.

Despite his lack of recent international competition and the potential for a grueling draw, Lee actually enters the Olympics as the betting favorite (-500), per DraftKings. That may reflect a bit of a U.S. bias on the part of DraftKings (a US-based service with primarily US-based customers), but it's also a reflection of Lee's tremendous ability.

Lee doesn't have much experience to drawn on against the competitors at this weight -- but that lack of experience cuts both ways. Outside of Zou, they haven't experienced his crushing grip, his scrambling ability, or the considerable danger that comes from being under Lee on the mat. Lee is a difficult wrestler to prepare for in any circ*mstance, but even moreso when you've never faced him before.

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The winning formula at the Olympics may look a lot like Lee's folkstyle matches at Iowa: quick and overwhelming As a Hawkeye, Lee was a master at earning quick victories, finishing a staggering number of matches with a pin or technical fall in two minutes or less. Lee's been able to continue those rapid-fire wins at the international level as well; outside of the Zou match, Lee's three technical falls at the World Olympic Games Qualifier tournament came in under a minute.

Lee's uncanny strength and vise-like grip have proven to be just as effective in freestyle as they were in folkstyle, even if the armbar tilts he used to great effect at Iowa have given way to leg laces and gut wrenches in freestyle. Lee has shown a tremendous ability to get to those leg laces and gut wrenches in his par terre offense on the mat and when he does, it's often only a matter of moments until the match is over.

Stringing together multiple technical fall wins probably isn't a realistic expectation against a field loaded with the best wrestlers in the world at 57 KG, but Lee's ability to score points in bunches could give him a key edge in the tournament. That fast-strike ability coupled with strong scrambling ability and generally stout defense should make him a major podium threat this week.

We'll find out when Lee's Olympic journey begins early (4:30 AM CT) on Thursday.