Ernesto is a Category 1 hurricane and is expected to become a major hurricane by Friday morning, according to the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center.
Ernesto's sustained winds have hit 75 mph, making it a Category 1 storm. Models show it becoming a "large and powerful hurricane" and "becoming quite a bit larger," forecasters with the Hurricane Center said.
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The National Hurricane Center launched its new "cone of concern" for Hurricane Ernesto earlier today, although you won't see many differences between the original and new cone. Both are available on the Hurricane Center's website.
The risk for flash floods from Ernesto continues over portions of Puerto Rico due to ongoing heavy rains.
While most spaghetti models show Ernesto on a path toward Bermuda by the weekend, dangerous surf and rip currents could affect Florida and the eastern coast of the United States. Swells are expected to reach the east coast of the United States Thursday night and continue into the weekend.
"Beach goers should be aware of a significant risk of deadly rip currents beginning later this week," the National Hurricane Center said.
The formation of the latest storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season comes just over a week after Hurricane Debby made landfall on Florida's Big Bend Monday, Aug. 5.
A major hurricane is one with sustained winds of at least 111 mph, making it a Category 3 storm or higher.
Hurricane Ernesto: What you need to know
- Location: 180 miles east of Grand Turk Island; 765 miles south-southwest of Bermuda
- Maximum sustained winds: 75 mph
- Movement: northwest at 16 mph
- Pressure: 989 mb
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Watches, warnings issued across Florida
No watches or warnings connected to Hurricane Ernesto have been issued for Florida.
The Bermuda Weather Service has issued a Hurricane Watch for Bermuda.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
How strong is Hurricane Ernesto and where is it going?
At 5 p.m., the center of Hurricane Ernesto was located near latitude 21.7 North, longitude 68.3 West.
Ernesto is moving toward the northwest near 16 mph. A turn toward the north-northwest and north is expected tonight and on Thursday.
A northward to northeastward motion at a slower forward speed is expected Friday and Saturday.
On the forecast track, the center of Ernesto is expected to pass near Bermuda on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Ernesto could become a major hurricane by Friday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches).
Spaghetti models for Hurricane Ernesto
Special note about spaghetti models:Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The Hurricane Center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts.
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Predicted impact on Florida from Hurricane Ernesto
"Currently, the weather along the southeastern U.S. coast looks fairly nice this weekend, so even if the storm remains well offshore, coastal impacts such as rough surf and rip currents could spell trouble for beach-goers trying to soak up the last weekends of summer," said AccuWeatherMeteorologist Emma Belscher.
Swells are expected to reach the east coast of the United States Thursday night and continue into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, according to the National Hurricane Center.
Key messages from the National Hurricane Center: What you need to know about Hurricane Ernesto
- Hurricane conditions are possible on Bermuda on Saturday, with tropical storm conditions possible by Friday afternoon. Rainfall associated with Ernesto may begin to affect Bermuda as early as Thursday and result in flash flooding across Bermuda later in the week and this weekend.
- Heavy rainfall will be diminishing across Puerto Rico into the Virgin Islands this evening. Locally considerable flash flooding and mudslides will continue through tonight over the Virgin Islands and into portions of Puerto Rico.
- Even though Ernesto is forecast to remain well offshore the U.S. East Coast, swells generated by the storm are expected to reach the area late this week and into the weekend. Beach goers should be aware of a significant risk of life-threatening surf and rip currents, and stay out of the water if advised by lifeguards. Surf and rip currents are also possible on the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos, and the Bahamas during the next few days.
Current forecast: How strong could Tropical Storm Ernesto get?
- At 11 a.m.: 75 mph (Category 1 hurricane)
- 12 hours: 85 mph
- 24 hours: 100 mph (Category 2 hurricane)
- 36 hours: 110 mph
- 48 hours: 115 mph (Category 3 hurricane)
- 60 hours: 110 mph
- 72 hours: 105 mph
- 96 hours: 100 mph
- 120 hours: 90 mph:
What impact could Hurricane Ernesto have and what areas could be affected?
- WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible on Bermuda Saturday, with tropical storm conditions possible by Friday afternoon.
- RAINFALL: Ernesto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 6 inches on Bermuda with isolated maximum amounts of 9 inches. This rainfall may result in considerable life-threatening flash flooding. Rainfall is expected to diminish this evening across Puerto Rico and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands. Total rainfall amounts from Ernesto are expected to be in the 6 to 10 inch range, with maximum amounts of 12 inches across southern to eastern Puerto Rico, 3 to 6 inches across northwestern Puerto Rico, and 4 to 6 inches across the U.S and British Virgin Islands.
- SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, and the Turks and Caicos Islands. These swells will reach the southeastern Bahamas tonight, and Bermuda and the rest of the Bahamas on Thursday. Swells are expected to reach the east coast of the United States Thursday night and continue into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
What else is out there and how likely are they to strengthen?
The National Hurricane Center is tracking two tropical waves:
- First wave: A tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic is moving west at 5 to 11 mph.
- Second wave: A tropical wave in the central Atlantic is moving west at 17 mph.
What do the colored areas on the NOAA map mean?
The hatched areas on a tropical outlook map indicate "areas where a tropical cyclone — which could be a tropical depression, tropical storm or hurricane — could develop," said National Hurricane Center Deputy Director Jamie Rhome.
The colors make it visibly clear how likely a system could develop with yellow being low, orange medium and red high.
The National Hurricane Center generally doesn't issue tropical advisories until a there is a named storm, but there is an exception.
"If a system is near land and there is potential for development, the National Hurricane Center won't wait before it issues advisories, even if the system hasn't become an actual storm. This gives residents time to prepare," Rhome said.
Who is likely to be impacted?
It's too early at this time to determine if there will be any impact to Florida or the U.S. from the tropical waves.
Forecasters urge all residents to continuemonitoring the tropics and to always be prepared. That advice is particularly important for what is expected to be avery active hurricane season.
Interactive map: What tropical storms, hurricanes have impacted your area in the past?
When is the Atlantic hurricane season?
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
When is the peak of hurricane season?
The peak of the season is Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center.
Excessive rainfall forecast
What's next?
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What do the watches and warnings from NHC mean?
What is storm surge?Graphics explain the deadly weather event
Hurricane warning: A hurricane warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.
Hurricane watch: A hurricane watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
Tropical storm warning: A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
Tropical storm watch: An announcement that sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph arepossiblewithin the specified area within 48 hours in association with atropical,subtropical, orpost-tropicalcyclone.
Storm surge warning: A storm surge warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials.
Storm surge watch: A storm surge watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
